31 Aug · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1590
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1620
FormWWLWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H52-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.