31 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1582
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1533
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
🌟Beran covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.