31 Aug · 16:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1555
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Rak
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1489
FormLLLLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zaskodny🌟Rak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (23)
Fair odds · Rak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)