31 Aug · 15:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PV
🇨🇿Petr Vicherek
ELO 1601
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1611
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vicherek🌟Vicherek covers set handicap as underdog 71% (58)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.