31 Aug · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1463
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Hendrych
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1542
FormLWWWL
44%
56%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (67)
Fair odds · Hendrych
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+79
H2H42-33
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (42-33)