31 Aug · 19:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1497
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Melichar
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Melichar
ELO 1548
FormLLLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Melichar rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (34)
Fair odds · Melichar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H8-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.