31 Aug · 17:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1463
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1497
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (45)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H8-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.