31 Aug · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1486
FormWLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jnr
JJ
🇨🇿Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
ELO 1535
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
🌟Jnr stays under total as favourite 67% (33)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H3-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.