31 Aug · 16:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OV
🇨🇿Oldrich Vaclahovsky
ELO 1439
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vaclahovsky
PC
🇨🇿Peter Chvojka
ELO 1431
FormLWWLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chvojka
Fair odds · Vaclahovsky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.