31 Aug · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1720
FormLWWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Karel
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1608
FormWWLWL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Ruzicka🌟Karel goes over total as favourite 67% (24)
Fair odds · Karel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+112
H2H3-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+112)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-1)