1 Sept · 10:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1639
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Benes
MB
🇨🇿Michal Brozek
ELO 1619
FormLLWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Brozek
Fair odds · Benes
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H28-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.