1 Sept · 14:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1562
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Holub
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pokorny
ELO 1558
FormWLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Pokorny stays under total as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+4
H2H13-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.