1 Sept · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1579
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lysakowski
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1621
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H137-152
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.