1 Sept · 09:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IH
🇨🇿Ivan Heuman
ELO 1528
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heuman
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1517
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moravec🌟Heuman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (46)
Fair odds · Heuman
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.80· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.