1 Sept · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1578
FormLWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Stapor
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1573
FormLLWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 62% · 1.62· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H44-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.