1 Sept · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1448
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Matus
JM
🇨🇿Jiri Matus
ELO 1490
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 69% (86)
Fair odds · Matus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H21-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.