2 Sept · 10:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1483
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Strelec
LS
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Snr
ELO 1462
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Snr🌟Snr covers set handicap as underdog 78% (32)
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.