2 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1567
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1523
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 66% (50)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H17-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.