2 Sept · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AR
🇨🇿Adam Martin Rek
ELO 1636
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rek
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1586
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 73% (141)
Fair odds · Rek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H40-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.