3 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿Dalibor Velky Jr
ELO 1569
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mrowetz
BM
🇨🇿Bruno Mrowetz
ELO 1588
FormWLLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 64% (107)
Fair odds · Mrowetz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.38· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H14-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.