3 Sept · 12:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1588
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1548
FormWWLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pawlik🌟Pawlik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (51)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H17-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.