3 Sept · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1559
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Niezgoda
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1666
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H10-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-3)