3 Sept · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jakub Rolik
ELO 1365
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Rolik
OS
🇨🇿Ondrej Sebek
ELO 1328
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Sebek goes over total as underdog 68% (40)
Fair odds · Rolik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H25-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.