3 Sept · 22:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1483
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Dohnal
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1474
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 28% (137)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.