3 Sept · 17:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MH
🇨🇿Matej Holub
ELO 1588
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1613
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.