3 Sept · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇨🇿Matej Beran
ELO 1518
FormLLWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Moravec
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1569
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Beran🌟Beran covers set handicap as underdog 79% (19)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.