3 Sept · 21:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1480
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kral
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1474
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (62)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H38-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.