4 Sept · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kolbusovsky
ELO 1295
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Nemec
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1342
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolbusovsky🌟Nemec rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (101)
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+47
H2H35-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.