5 Sept · 13:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1617
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skvrna
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1591
FormWLWWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Krupnik🌟Skvrna rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (132)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H32-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.