5 Sept · 14:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1536
FormLWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lovl
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1531
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.