5 Sept · 10:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1543
FormLWWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pawlik
JP
🇨🇿Jan Przybyla
ELO 1502
FormWLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Przybyla🌟Pawlik rarely covers set handicap as favourite 36% (61)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H7-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.