5 Sept · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1428
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chmelicek
RH
🇨🇿Radek Hruby
ELO 1364
FormWWLLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+64
H2H12-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-1)