5 Sept · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1428
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Motacek
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Motacek
ELO 1470
FormLWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Motacek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.56· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.