5 Sept · 17:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1535
FormWWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Dvorak
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1454
FormLLLLW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (48)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)