5 Sept · 20:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DB
🇨🇿Damian Bucko
ELO 1563
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Duch
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1592
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H64-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.