6 Sept · 12:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1660
FormWLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Niezgoda
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1558
FormLWWLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Niezgoda
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+102
H2H10-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+102)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-4)