6 Sept · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1559
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lovl
JM
🇨🇿Jirasek Martin
ELO 1516
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.