6 Sept · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1500
FormLLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Lovl
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1559
FormWWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Lovl
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~73 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+59
H2H4-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-1)