6 Sept · 09:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇨🇿Jan Ruzicka
ELO 1585
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Ruzicka
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1559
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Ruzicka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.