6 Sept · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1676
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Benak
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1690
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vesecky🌟Benak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (45)
Fair odds · Benak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H13-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.