6 Sept · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1708
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cerny
JB
🇨🇿Jan Benak
ELO 1690
FormLWWWL
51%
49%
🌟Benak covers set handicap as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H16-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.