6 Sept · 16:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1540
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Dzida
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1537
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Dzida
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.