6 Sept · 11:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇨🇿Pawel Kos
ELO 1531
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Duch
AD
🇨🇿Adam Duch
ELO 1605
FormLWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Duch
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+74
H2H64-45
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+74)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (64-45)