6 Sept · 16:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1660
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Stusek
FS
🇨🇿Filip Strejc
ELO 1553
FormLLLLW
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Strejc🌟Stusek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 37% (99)
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+107
H2H84-71
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+107)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (84-71)