6 Sept · 17:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1477
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mandrysz
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1426
FormLLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.