6 Sept · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DJ
🇨🇿David Jicha
ELO 1700
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jicha
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1660
FormWLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stusek
Fair odds · Jicha
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H102-77
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.