6 Sept · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1578
FormLLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trnka
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1587
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Trnka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.