6 Sept · 17:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
TT
🇨🇿Tomas Trnka
ELO 1587
FormLLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Bartik
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Bartik
ELO 1673
FormLLWLW
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Trnka🌟Trnka covers set handicap as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Bartik
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)