6 Sept · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JM
🇨🇿Jan Masternak
ELO 1502
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stapor
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1536
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H46-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.