6 Sept · 21:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Marcin Stepien
ELO 1645
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ovcharenko
MO
🇨🇿Maksim Ovcharenko
ELO 1678
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Ovcharenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H9-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.